Vincenzo Montella took the job in September 2023, and his reward was steering Türkiye to a Euro 2024 quarter-final, the country's deepest run at a major tournament since the 2002 World Cup semi-final under Şenol Güneş. That generation remains the benchmark, and a 24-year wait to return to the World Cup ended via a qualifying campaign that confirmed Montella's side as something more than nostalgic hopefuls. A FIFA ranking of 22 understates a squad whose spine plays Champions League football week to week; the federation's internal expectation is a knockout round, and on current trajectory anything short of the last 16 would feel like underachievement.
Key players
Türkiye's tournament will largely be defined by the trident playing in front of Hakan Çalhanoğlu. The Inter midfielder is the spine of the operation, a defensive-midfield hybrid whose 12 goals and 7 assists in 30 appearances, on 7.1 xG, double as deep-lying playmaking and a genuine goal threat from range — he also contributed 26 interceptions and 141 ball recoveries. Ahead of him, Arda Güler has matured at Real Madrid into the side's primary creator: 7 goals and 14 assists across 49 outings, with 111 key passes and 24 big chances created, suggest a player now trusted to set the tempo rather than simply decorate it. The cutting edge comes from Kenan Yıldız on the left, whose 11 goals, 9 assists and 11.4 xG in 47 Juventus games, allied to 100 completed dribbles, give Montella the carrier capable of turning controlled possession into shots. Kerem Aktürkoğlu's 16-goal season offers a sharper finisher leading the line.
Predicted XI
Form going into the tournament
Montella's 4-2-3-1 is built around a double pivot of Çalhanoğlu and Kökçü, which lets Güler operate as a roaming ten rather than a conventional playmaker tied to the half-spaces. The shape is patient in build-up — Bardakcı stepping into midfield lanes, Kadıoğlu providing the width on the left — but the press triggers higher up when Yıldız and the striker can pin the opposition centre-backs. The defensive line sits mid-block by default, wary of being exposed in transition given how advanced both eights drift. Two questions remain. The right wing is genuinely contested, with Yunus Akgün penciled in but Aktürkoğlu arguably the more incisive option cutting inside. And the centre-forward berth, currently improvised through Aktürkoğlu, is the squad's thinnest position and the system's clearest structural weakness.
Team form
Group D opens against Australia (FIFA 27) on 14 June, a fixture Türkiye should expect to control without taking for granted, before Paraguay (40th) on 20 June, the lowest-ranked of the three and the game that ought to decide whether top spot is realistic. The closer against the United States (16th) on 26 June is the genuine measuring stick and will likely determine seeding. From there the bracket is hypothetical — actual opponents hinge on final standings and the third-placed permutations — but the model projects a Round of 32 meeting with Senegal (14th), a possible R16 tie against Algeria (28th), and a quarter-final collision with Spain (2nd) where the run is forecast to end. Reaching the last eight would constitute success; exiting in the group stage would be a clear disappointment.
Country-form leaders
Club-form leaders
Group stage
Group fixtures
