Gustavo Alfaro takes Paraguay back to a World Cup for the first time since 2010, ending a 16-year absence that spanned an entire generation of decline. The Argentine, hired in 2024 after steering Ecuador through Qatar 2022 despite a points deduction, has a reputation for organising mid-tier South American sides into something stubborn and coherent, and his arrival coincided with the qualification surge that dragged Paraguay out of CONMEBOL's basement. A FIFA ranking of 40 understates the trajectory more than the ceiling: this is a country whose quarter-final run in 2010 remains the high-water mark, and simply being in the conversation again qualifies as progress.
Key players
Three figures shape Paraguay's spine. Captain Gustavo Gómez, the Palmeiras centre-back, brings 23 appearances, three goals and 63 aerials won to a back line that needs leadership against quicker forwards; alongside him, Sunderland's Omar Alderete offers more mobility and a fuller defensive profile — 34 games, 37 interceptions, 36 tackles and 91 aerials won across 2,892 minutes. The intrigue lies further forward, where Diego Gómez has turned into a genuine box-crashing midfielder at Brighton: 10 goals and 6.7 xG from 37 appearances, paired with 84 tackles and 127 ball recoveries, a rare blend of running power and end product from central midfield. Behind the predicted starters, Julio Enciso is the obvious wildcard in reserve — 12 goals, 10 assists and 12.2 xG at Strasbourg suggest the most creative ceiling in the squad, even if Alfaro currently favours Almirón and Galarza Fonda in the wide roles. Álex Arce, 10 goals in 877 minutes, lurks as a centre-forward alternative.
Predicted XI
Form going into the tournament
Alfaro's Paraguay is built on the 4-4-2 he leaned on through qualifying: two banks of four, compact vertical distances, and a mid-block that invites possession into wide areas before springing the trap. The defensive line sits deeper than most South American sides, with Alderete and Gustavo Gómez anchoring a back four that prioritises aerial duels and second-ball recovery over stepping out. Transitions, not sustained build-up, are the attacking mechanism — Almirón and Diego Gómez are the runners asked to break lines once possession turns over. Two questions linger. The strike pairing is unresolved, with Ávalos, Mauricio and Arce competing for roles that demand different things. And the full-back depth, particularly behind Cáceres on the right, is the thinnest layer of a squad otherwise stocked with centre-backs.
Team form
Group D offers no soft landing. The opener against the United States (16th in FIFA's ranking) is the highest-ranked obstacle and likely sets the tone, before a meeting with Türkiye (22nd) that may decide who controls second place. The closer against Australia (27th) is the most navigable on paper, though by then the permutations will be doing half the work. Our model has Paraguay going out at the Round of 32, projected to face Germany — the actual opponent will depend on where Paraguay finish and how the third-place bracket falls, so treat that as a guide rather than a fixture. Reaching the last 16 and pushing a top-ten side would constitute a successful return after two absences; failing to escape the group would feel like opportunity squandered.
Country-form leaders
Club-form leaders
Group stage
Group fixtures
