Hajime Moriyasu enters a third tournament cycle in charge, and the case for and against him remains essentially unchanged: a coach who has overseen comfortable qualification and delivered the group-stage win over Germany in Qatar, yet has never carried Japan past the Round of 16, a ceiling they have now bumped against four times since 2002. A FIFA ranking of 18 is the highest this generation has held heading into a World Cup, and the federation has been transparent that the ambition is finally the quarter-finals. Drawn in Group F with the Netherlands, Sweden and Tunisia, that target is plausible rather than presumed.
Key players
Junya Ito carries the most direct creative threat from the right flank, his 70 key passes and 15 big chances created in 36 appearances for Genk underlining a player who manufactures openings as reliably as he finishes them — eight goals and five assists at a healthy 4.8 xG suggest the output is sustainable rather than streaky. Inside him, Takefusa Kubo offers a different register: fewer raw goal involvements (two and four for Real Sociedad), but 35 dribbles, 136 duels won and 59 ball recoveries from a nominal winger speak to the two-way work Moriyasu leans on. The anchor is Kaishu Sano, whose Mainz numbers are the most striking on the sheet — 91 interceptions, 71 tackles and 274 ball recoveries across 4,164 minutes. That volume of defensive actions, paired with Daichi Kamada's 91 tackles and 45 key passes alongside him, is what allows the front players to gamble. Ritsu Doan's seven goals and 16 big chances created remain a serious option in reserve.
Predicted XI
Form going into the tournament
Moriyasu has settled on a 3-4-2-1 that gives Japan both width through aggressive wing-backs and numerical security against quicker forwards, with Itakura and Hiroki Ito splitting the back three either side of Tsuyoshi Watanabe. The build-up is patient rather than vertical, anchored by Kaishu Sano's screening in front of the centre-backs and Kamada dropping to receive between lines, before the press triggers higher up once the ball moves wide. The two free tens — Kubo and Junya Ito drifting infield off Ayase Ueda — are where the system lives or dies. The contested call is at right wing-back, where Sugawara is preferred but Doan offers a more direct alternative from the same flank. The known vulnerability is central striker depth behind Ueda, and the spaces a back three concedes when wing-backs commit forward simultaneously.
Team form
Group F opens with the Netherlands on 14 June, and the gap in FIFA ranking — 18 to 7 — frames that fixture as the one where a point would already feel like progress. Tunisia (44) a week later is the swing match: anything less than three points reshapes the entire calculus. Sweden (38) on 25 June then likely decides second place, and on current form Japan should fancy themselves there. The model's call is a Round of 32 exit, with a probable collision course with Brazil the obstacle — though the actual bracket depends on group standings and third-place permutations across the expanded format. Success, realistically, is navigating the group and pushing whichever seeded opponent emerges; disappointment would be failing to clear a group where only one side is ranked above them.
Country-form leaders
Club-form leaders
Group stage
Group fixtures
