Our match model (win / clean-sheet / goals odds for every fixture) and player model (goals, assists, cards per player) combine into expected FPL points under the official scoring rules.
The armband doubles your pick, so the score is 2× expected points for the gameweek — double gameweeks count both fixtures.
The chance of a 12+ point captain haul — ceiling matters as much as the mean when you pick an armband.
How much of the field the pick shields you against: ownership plus captaincy share — sampled from real top-10k squads once the season runs.
