Derby County vs Stoke City

Championship

Finished
0 - 0
03 May 2025

Derby County vs Stoke City Match Prediction

Our AI model analyzes team form, head-to-head history, and recent performance to generate these predictions.

Based on our advanced statistical model, we predict a score around 1.3 - 1.0. Derby County are favored to win this match. With a predicted total of 2.3 goals, this match is expected to stay under 2.5 goals.

Predicted Score

1.3 : 1.0

Match Outcome Probability

45.4%
26.7%
27.9%
Derby County Win
Draw
Stoke City Win

Goal Distribution

The probability of each team scoring a specific number of goals (0-4+).

Derby County Goal Distribution

24.5%
0
34.6%
1
22.9%
2
10.6%
3
5.2%
4+

Stoke City Goal Distribution

34.6%
0
34.5%
1
17.7%
2
6.0%
3
2.2%
4+

Over/Under Probabilities

The likelihood of the total match goals being above or below specific thresholds.

Over 1.5 68.8%
Over 2.5 43.0%
Over 3.5 21.9%
Over 4.5 11.5%
Under 1.5 31.2%
Under 2.5 57.0%
Under 3.5 78.1%
Under 4.5 88.5%

Match Lineups & Player Stats

Performance statistics from the completed match, showing starters and substitutes.

Derby County logo Derby County Stats

Starting XI

# Player Rating Mins
2 Kane Wilson 6.8
90
3 Craig Forsyth 6.9
90
6 Sondre Klingen Langås 6.9
90
10 Jerry Yates 6.7
88
12 Nathaniel Phillips 7.7
90
16 Liam Thompson 7.0
88
18 Marcus Harness 6.7
67
25 Matthew Clarke 7.4
90
28 Harrison Armstrong 7.4
90
31 Josh Vickers 7.1
90
32 Ebou Adams 7.2
90

Bench

7 Tom Barkhuizen N/A -
8 Ben Osborn N/A -
9 Kemar Roofe N/A
2
11 Nathaniel Méndez-Laing 6.6
23
13 Rohan Luthra N/A -
17 Kenzo Goudmijn N/A -
19 Kayden Jackson N/A
2
27 Corey Blackett-Taylor N/A -
33 Erik Pieters N/A
1

Stoke City logo Stoke City Stats

Starting XI

# Player Rating Mins
2 Lynden Gooch 7.5
90
23 Ben Gibson 7.4
90
1 Viktor Johansson 7.5
90
6 Wouter Burger 7.0
90
8 Lewis Baker 7.2
90
9 Ali Al Hamadi 7.1
88
10 Bae Jun-Ho 6.9
88
16 Ben Wilmot 7.0
90
18 Mohammed Bosun Lawal 7.5
90
20 Sam Gallagher 6.6
90
26 Ashley Phillips 7.2
90

Bench

4 Ben Pearson N/A -
11 Lewis Koumas N/A -
12 Tatsuki Seko N/A -
13 Jack Bonham N/A -
24 Andrew Moran N/A
2
35 Nathan Lowe N/A
2
42 Million Manhoef N/A -
56 Favour Fawunmi N/A -
57 Jake Griffin N/A -

Match Statistics

0.0 Expected Goals (xG) 0.0
52% Possession 48%
12 Shots 4
4 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 4
10 Fouls 9
2 Yellow Cards 1
0 Red Cards 0
2 Offsides 2

Key Player Statistics

Shots
Jerry Yates
3
Craig Forsyth
2
Sondre Klingen Langås
2
Nathaniel Phillips
2
Kane Wilson
1
Harrison Armstrong
1
Ebou Adams
1
Lewis Baker
1
Ali Al Hamadi
1
Mohammed Bosun Lawal
1
Sam Gallagher
1
Key Passes
Kane Wilson
2
Jerry Yates
1
Nathaniel Phillips
1
Matthew Clarke
1
Harrison Armstrong
1
Ebou Adams
1
Ali Al Hamadi
1
Tackles Won
Lynden Gooch
4
Liam Thompson
2
Marcus Harness
2
Bae Jun-Ho
2
Mohammed Bosun Lawal
2
Kane Wilson
1
Craig Forsyth
1
Nathaniel Phillips
1
Matthew Clarke
1
Harrison Armstrong
1
Wouter Burger
1
Lewis Baker
1
Ali Al Hamadi
1
Ashley Phillips
1
Interceptions
Nathaniel Phillips
3
Liam Thompson
3
Wouter Burger
3
Sondre Klingen Langås
1
Harrison Armstrong
1
Lynden Gooch
1
Ben Gibson
1
Bae Jun-Ho
1
Ben Wilmot
1
Mohammed Bosun Lawal
1